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Welcome to a new-look edition of Newsweek Sports Betting, just in time for a massive night for NBA fans.

Before we dive into tonight’s NBA Cup Championship matchup between San Antonio and New York (8:30 p.m. ET, Prime Video), a couple of programming notes for the next couple of weeks:

Now, let’s break down one of the biggest games of Victor Wembanyama’s career — and one of the most anticipated games of this NBA season to date — tonight in Las Vegas.

*We’re not skipping our weekly college hoops check-in altogether, though. Stick with us to the end for a quick look at No. 11 Louisville’s trip to Knoxville to take on No. 20 Tennessee.

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The third edition¹ of the NBA Cup concludes tonight with an excellent matchup between the Spurs and Knicks.

Both teams enter the NBA Cup Championship at 18-7.

But while the Knicks reached the final after winning as the betting favorites in both the quarterfinals (NYK 117, TOR 101) and the semifinals (NYK 132, ORL 120), the Spurs upset the Lakers in the quarters (SAS 132, LAL 119) without Victor Wembanyama, then stunned reigning champ OKC in the semis on Saturday night, 111-1109.

Even after becoming just the second team all season to beat the Thunder (and the first to beat them with SGA and Co. at full strength), the Spurs are once again catching points.

I wrote last week before they took on the Lakers that I couldn’t understand why the Spurs were 7-point dogs in L.A. I feel similarly about tonight’s matchup, this time with Wembanyama in action.

Against the best defensive team in the league, OKC, on Saturday night — and amid a significant minutes restriction, while shaking off the rust in his first game in nearly a month — Wemby scored 22 points in just 21 minutes and recorded a plus/minus of +21.

Given Wembanyama’s production against Chet Holmgren and the Thunder, should we really trust Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks to contain him tonight?

One of the biggest questions is whether Wembanyama will once again be limited to around 20 minutes. Whether he gets close to his typical workload or not this evening, he strikes me as a brutal matchup for Knicks bigs Towns and Mitchell Robinson on both ends of the court.

The last time Wembanyama faced the Knicks (on Christmas Day a year ago), he exploded for 42 points on 16-for-31 FG shooting, including 6-for-16 from 3, and 18 rebounds.

When guarded by Towns in that game (42.6 total possessions, per NBA.com’s matchup data), Wembanyama scored 22 points on 7-for-16 shooting from the floor, and the Spurs scored a total 56 points in those possessions.

Towns did have a solid offensive night on the other end, (also per NBA.com’s matchup tracking data), with 15 points on 7-for-10 FG shooting in 42.6 possessions with Wembanyama as his primary defender.

If I haven’t already given this away, I like San Antonio tonight. In addition to how well I expect Wembanyama to play, I’m also confident in the Spurs defense limiting Knicks star Jalen Brunson.

That’s a bold take given Brunson’s consistently excellent play in big games like this one, but San Antonio did a solid job on reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Saturday night. While SGA scored 29 points, he needed 23 shots to get them, and he was held to just four three-throw attempts while finishing with five turnovers to go along with his five assists.

Defending Brunson is a very different task, but it’s hard not to feel good about the Spurs’ perimeter D after that effort against Gilgeous-Alexander.

I expect this game to be close, but I’m bullish on the Spurs pulling yet another NBA Cup upset tonight. The biggest question, for me, is whether to take them on the moneyline or the spread.

Personally, any time I like an NBA or college basketball underdog of 4 points or less, I’m going with the higher payout that comes with a moneyline bet.

Best bet: Spurs +120 (DK)

Wemby took just one 3-point attempt vs. Oklahoma City on Saturday night and knocked it down. I expect the deep ball to be a much bigger factor for him tonight, as neither Towns nor Robinson are well-suited to take away his outside shot.

Remember, in this matchup last year, Wembanyama took 16 (!) 3-pointers, which tied for his season-high, and knocked down six of them.

If you’re looking for a safe play with solid value, a 1-unit bet on Wembanyama to make 2+ made threes is hard to resist, especially at -102 at FanDuel. And while we’re at it, why not take a small stab (like a quarter-unit) at Wembanyama 3+ made threes at +285 (also available at FanDuel)?

As promised, we’re not ignoring the headliner in college basketball tonight: No. 11 Louisville vs. No. 20 Tennessee (-2.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Louisville is a 2.5-point underdog, with the total set at 157.5.

I’m curious to see how highly touted freshman Nate Ament and Tennessee (7-3) will look in their first game since Dec. 6 as they look to snap a three-game losing streak.

Historically, Rick Barnes’ team rarely loses in Knoxville, but I’m backing Louisville’s (9-1) balanced squad tonight. The Cards boast a deep, experienced supporting cast around projected 2026 first-round pick Mikel Brown Jr., and they’re coming off a 26-point romp over Memphis despite Brown shooting just 3-for-9 from the floor.

After 10 games and a long layoff, it’s anyone’s guess whether we’ll see the version of the Vols squad that handed No. 8 Houston its only loss of the season or the one that struggled in losses to Kansas (with Darryn Peterson sidelined), Syracuse and Illinois.

Louisville’s early-season resume includes wins over Kentucky, Cincinnati, Indiana and Memphis. The Cards’ only loss came on the road against Arkansas in the ACC/SEC Challenge, as ice-cold shooting — 8-for-37 (22%) from 3-point land — doomed them in an 89-80 loss to the Razorbacks.

Even in a tough spot tonight against a well-rested opponent, I like Brown and the Cards to pull the upset. LOU +130 was available at DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon.

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