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For better or worse, I tend to use “can’t-miss” to describe quite a few weekends for sports fans/bettors every year.
So, if you’re rolling your eyes at me predicting another outstanding Final Four game (or three) in Indianapolis on Saturday and Monday, I can’t say that I blame you.
But you don’t need to have a KenPom obsession1 to recognize that Arizona (1) vs. Michigan (1) (Saturday night at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS/truTV/HBO Max) is as good as college hoops gets*.
And the “undercard” between South Region champ Illinois (3) and East Region winner UConn (2) (Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS/truTV/HBO Max) is a fascinating matchup in its own right — and it’s also projected to be a nailbiter.
*Speaking of “as good as college basketball gets,” the Final Four teaser that CBS Sports released earlier this week2 is unreal, and it’s a great jumping-off point for this edition of Newsweek Sports Betting.
The author of this newsletter, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett, is a longtime sportswriter who turned his attention to sports betting back in 2019. Get in touch by emailing me at [email protected].
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Quick Illinois-UConn + Arizona-Michigan Thoughts, Picks
Jaden Bradley and the Arizona Wildcats are currently slight underdogs against Dusty May’s juggernaut Michigan squad. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
I’ll break down both Illinois-UConn and Arizona-Michigan — and my favorite bets for each game — in great detail for you on Friday morning at Newsweek Sports Betting.
Right now, it feels like a good idea (even if it’s a bit of a cop-out) to hold off on predicting who’s winning this year’s national title game until we know who’s in it.
In the meantime, below are the key questions that I expect to decide Illinois vs. UConn and Arizona vs. Michigan, as well as my predictions for each matchup.
Can Illinois slow down Tarris Reed Jr.?
To me, the Huskies’ big man has had the best tournament of any player whose team is still alive.
Yaxel Lendeborg and several others have been incredible in their own right, but Reed hasn’t slowed down since turning in one of the most impressive performances in NCAA Tournament history in his team’s first-round win over Furman.
But I expect Illinois, which is A) one of the tallest teams in the country, and B) an elite rebounding team, especially on the offensive glass, to contain Reed.
He has managed to avoid foul trouble in this tournament, but staying on the court has been a major issue for him most of this season. In fact, including the Big East Tournament, Reed committed at least four personal fouls in five of his last nine games of the season prior to the NCAAT.
The fact that UConn already beat Illinois 74-61 once this year despite Reed playing just 15 minutes and finishing with 2 points due to foul trouble tells us that UConn isn’t as dependent on Reed as it looked at times against Furman and Duke.
Personally, though, I’m choosing to look at how the Illini limited Reed in Round 1 as a good sign for their chances on Saturday night.
Pick: Illinois to advance
Will guard play decide Arizona vs. Michigan?
No matter how bullish you are on underrated Arizona bigs Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka, it’s hard to deny that Michigan’s trio of Aday Mara, Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. will give the Wolverines the advantage in the paint.
While I could see Peat, Krivas and Awaka holding their own, at worst, on Saturday night, the real reason I like the Wildcats is the advantage they will have in the backcourt.
Jaden Bradley won Big 12 Player of the Year for a reason, and I expect him to get the better of Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau on both ends of the court.
Arizona freshman Brayden Burries should also shine after lighting up Houston in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game, Arkansas in the Sweet 16 and Purdue in the Elite 8.
In his last five games, Burries has shot 28-for-48 from the floor, including 15-of-24 from 3-point range.
Pick: Arizona to advance
Who Will Be The Next North Carolina Men’s Basketball Coach?
We interrupt the on-court previews for a rapid-fire take on the future of North Carolina basketball.
This is another topic I’ll unpack in depth later this week. For now, here are two sports betting-related notes on UNC’s search for its replacement for Hubert Davis:
Yes, you can trade on who will be the next coach of the Tar Heels at Kalshi.
Based on how Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd has responded to questions this week about whether he’s interested in leaving Tucson for Chapel Hill, my money is on the Heels landing Lloyd. … More to come on this soon!
Heavily Favored UConn Women To Roll, Defend Title?
On the women’s side, Geno Auriemma’s 38-0 UConn Huskies are understandably heavily favored to win the national title for the second season in a row.
After all four 1-seeds in this year’s NCAA Women’s Tournament cruised to the Final Four, oddsmakers expect a couple of close semifinal matchups on Friday night in Phoenix.
At DK, UConn is -160 as of Wednesday afternoon to cut down the nets, followed by Texas (+550), South Carolina (+550) and UCLA (+600). The Huskies, who take on South Carolina at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN) on Friday night, are laying 6.5 points in that matchup.
In Friday night’s late game (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) between 35-3 Texas and 35-1 UCLA, the Longhorns are 1.5-point favorites.
Predictions:
In the semis, I like the Huskies to not only win, but cover, against a South Carolina squad that won’t have an answer for either Sarah Strong or Azzi Fudd. In fact, I’m not convinced the Gamecocks will keep this one close against this dominant UConn squad, which has won 54 (!) games in a row.
I could see Texas vs. UCLA going either way, but I give the edge to 6-7 superstar Lauren Betts and the Bruins, even though Texas won the regular-season meeting between these teams, 76-65, while forcing 20 turnovers.
In the championship game, I expect a closer final than last year’s between UConn and South Carolina (UConn 82, South Carolina 59), but I’m not picking against Strong, Fudd and a Huskies squad that has destroyed almost everything in its path this year.
UConn did have to grind out 72-69 win over Michigan back in November, but that nailbiter stands out as an outlier amid a remarkable season that has brought back memories of the Breanna Stewart era.
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1 Those who have one have probably heard that this year’s Arizona and Michigan squads are two of the best in the history of the KenPom ranking system, as noted this week by Matthew Winick of Basket Under Review.
2 🔊⬆️⬆️⬆️if you need some Eve 6 in your life (you do)
